Strong El Niño set to bring stormier UK winter

Summarised from 4 outlets · 7 reports · Updated 16 Oct, 06:21 · Archive

A powerful El Niño phenomenon is expected to peak in December, bringing wetter and stormier conditions to the UK in autumn and winter.

An El Niño event is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific Ocean and strengthening rapidly. The World Meteorological Organization said in its latest update that sea-surface temperatures are expected to rise to record levels in October, November and December. The seasonal average temperature anomaly is forecast to reach approximately 3.7°C above normal, peaking around December—the highest on record, surpassing the previous record of 2.6°C from November 2015 to January 2016. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said El Niño has a near-100 per cent likelihood of persisting through February 2027, potentially making it one of the strongest since at least 1950.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that happens every two to seven years in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and influences weather patterns globally. In the UK, the Met Office expects wetter and stormier conditions throughout autumn and into early winter, with increased risks of flooding and strong winds that could disrupt homes, businesses and travel. The phenomenon can also increase the chance of cold spells later in winter, though this seems counterintuitive given warming ocean temperatures.

The explanation lies in how weather systems across the globe influence each other through atmospheric patterns. El Niño is associated with a negative phase of the North Atlantic oscillation, which can weaken the winds that normally carry mild air from the Atlantic to the UK. This increases the chance of colder but calm weather later in winter. Additionally, experts have noted that El Niño has the potential to destabilise the polar vortex—a stream of colder winds that usually stays in polar regions. When knocked off kilter, it can allow extremely cold air to escape and bring wintery conditions further south, potentially reaching the UK in late winter.

Meanwhile, climate change is amplifying these effects. Research on Hurricane Polo in the Pacific found that both El Niño and climate change drove the storm's rapid intensification, but climate change was the larger factor, boosting wind speeds by approximately 6 mph compared to El Niño's 5 mph contribution. Climate scientist Friederike Otto noted that whilst El Niño comes and goes, climate change only worsens, meaning every hurricane in the East Pacific now carries a climate change signal making it stronger.

How it is being reported

• 'Super' El Niño: Why Could A Warmer Pacific Mean A Colder UK Winter?An El Niño is now “firmly established” and set to intensify even further in the run up to December. The phenomenon, which is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average, is set to have major impacts globally on rainfall and temperature patterns, resulting in more flooding, drought and extreme heat. According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), these average sea surface temperatures are now at their highest on record : +2.81°C. It’s predicted sea surface temperatures will rise to more than 3°C above average in the coming…HuffPost UK · 16 Oct, 06:00
• El Nino to bring strong storms to West Coast, Southern U.S., NOAA saysThis winter will see strong storms hit the West Coast and southern half of the U.S., driven by a strong El Niño, according to government forecasters.UPI · 16 Oct, 02:05
• El Nino weather forecast with 'near-100% chance' after link to snow hitting UKSea-surface temperatures are expected to increase to 'record levels' as the world braces for what forecasters say could be the strongest El Niño event since at least 1950The Mirror · 15 Oct, 22:45
• El Niño helped turn tropical storm into Category 5 monster in just 24 hours, experts sayBoth climate change and a strong El Niño combined to cause Hurricane Polo to explosively intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 5 monster in just 24 hoursIndependent World · 15 Oct, 15:54
• El Niño and climate change unleash monster hurricane as scientists issue chilling warningBoth climate change and a strong El Niño combined to cause Hurricane Polo to explosively intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 5 monster in just 24 hoursIndependent World · 15 Oct, 11:31
• Expert Warns There's No 'Normal Weather' Anymore Amidst El Niño And Polar Vortex WorriesExperts have predicted a “Godzilla”-level El Niño since the start of this year, and it looks like temperature increases at the Pacific Ocean’s surface are set to exceed even some of those early estimates. This might, in turn, lead to flooding, drought, and colder, stormier UK winters . It could even play a role in destabilising the “Polar vortex”, a stream of colder winds that usually stays in a polar region but could reach further towards the equator early next year. And that all comes after a record-breaking summer of soaring temperatures and drought . So, perhaps it’s no wonder Ian Lisk…HuffPost UK · 15 Oct, 10:20
• 3 Steps A Gardener Is Taking Now To El Niño-Proof His LawnAs far back as spring, experts have been warning of a so-called “super” or “Godzilla” El Niño which will peak at the end of this year. As that period draws closer, we’ve heard about how stormy and cold it might make the UK’s autumn and winter seasons (even though the phenomenon might raise global temperatures overall) . And it could have knock-on effects on energy prices , too. For those who have a garden, greenhouse, or just a group of potted plants by their door, Chris McIlroy, from The Grass People , said the changeable weather might seriously affect your plants. “The effects of the…HuffPost UK · 14 Oct, 09:51

In this story: UK · World Meteorological Organization · Met Office · Pacific Ocean · North Atlantic · Ian Lisk · Friederike Otto

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