Weakened polar vortex could bring early UK snow and cold

Summarised from 5 outlets · Updated 6 Nov, 17:26 · Archive

The Arctic polar vortex is weakening in early November, an unusually early event that could bring cold and snowy weather to the UK.

The polar vortex, a ring of powerful winds 15-50 kilometres above the Arctic, has begun weakening unusually early in November. Normally these winds strengthen during winter and trap the coldest air close to the North Pole. When they weaken, cold Arctic air can spread southwards towards Europe and the UK.

The Met Office has warned that a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW)—a reversal of the polar winds—could occur by mid-November, which would be the earliest such event on record in at least 75 years of modern observation. Forecasters say this is a 'highly unusual disruption'. Lead climate scientist Jeff Knight told the BBC that the current event appears to be the earliest on record, with most experts agreeing it is 'very unusual'.

If the polar vortex weakens significantly, it could alter the jet stream's path and increase the possibility of snow, particularly in eastern Britain. The UK could experience cold north and north-easterly winds dominating the climate this winter, with potential for wintry showers in the north. The disruption may also heighten the potential for stormy and wet weather.

Scientists believe the early weakening may be linked to the strong El Niño system currently developing in the Pacific Ocean. Professor Amanda Maycock, a climate scientist at the University of Leeds, identified this as 'one of the potential contenders' for causing the early event. A comparable disruption in 2018, known as the Beast from the East, brought temperatures as low as minus 14 degrees Celsius to parts of the UK.

The long-range forecast from the Met Office currently suggests colder conditions may spread from the north, though the exact timing and impact remain uncertain. Forecasters warn that the nature of any colder outbreak is 'very uncertain', but residents have been advised to prepare for potentially severe winter weather.

How it is being reported

• Will 'unprecedented' polar vortex change bring another Beast from the East to London?A major Sudden Stratospheric Warming event could bring bitter winds and heavy snow to the capital as early as later this monthEvening Standard · 6 Nov, 17:50
• How the polar vortex could affect UK weather for the rest of the winterA weakening polar vortex can trigger a cold snap in the UK - the most notable example being the Beast from the East in 2018The i Paper · 6 Nov, 16:19
• How Could The Polar Vortex's Early 'Weakening' Impact UK Winter?The North Pole’s polar vortex, which starts in winter, had a stronger-than-usual start this year. You might think this more intense weather would leave us colder and snowier than usual. But nope – these incredibly strong winds, which circle high above the Arctic, actually help to trap freezing temps, preventing them from spilling south towards places like Canada, North America, Northern Europe, and, as an extension, the UK. However, some forecasts suggested that the polar vortex could weaken in January. And since then, others have put the date as early as November . This projection has been…HuffPost UK · 6 Nov, 11:48
• Could a polar vortex dump record-breaking snow on the UK?Arctic winds could dominate the UK’s climate this winter (Picture: Getty) This winter could become unseasonably cold, snowy or windy thanks to Arctic winds drifting further south towards the UK. Met Office forecasters say that the weakening of the polar vortex associated with El Niño could cause…Metro · 6 Nov, 11:00
• Britain braced for temperatures to plummet with weakened polar vortex set to bring snowDisruptions to the polar vortex could result in Britain being battered with snow much earlier in the season as trapped frigid air above the Arctic makes its way further southThe Mirror · 6 Nov, 09:10

In this story: Met Office · Arctic · UK · El Niño · Europe · Jeff Knight · University of Leeds · Amanda Maycock

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