Cumbria faces wetter, stormier winter as strong El Niño develops

Summarised from 4 outlets · Updated 16 Oct, 13:30 · Archive

Forecasters warn Cumbria could face increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops.

Forecasters warn that Cumbria could face an increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops in the Pacific Ocean. The Met Office says the weather pattern, which is linked to warming sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, can influence weather around the world and increase the likelihood of wetter and stormier conditions across north-west Europe and Britain.

Although the UK is thousands of miles from the El Niño's source, the effects could be of particular concern in Cumbria, where communities have repeatedly been affected by major flood events in recent decades. The Met Office expects the growing El Niño to increase the chances of wetter and windier weather during late autumn and early winter, though experts stress that it does not guarantee any specific weather event.

In practical terms, this could mean a greater likelihood of Atlantic storms bringing periods of heavy rainfall across the county, increasing pressure on river catchments. Forecasters also say early winter could be milder than average. However, later in the season the effects of El Niño can increase the chances of disruption to the polar vortex, potentially raising the likelihood of cold snaps and wintry weather. These remain changes in probability rather than firm predictions.

Comparisons have been drawn with the winter of 2015-16, when a strong El Niño coincided with severe weather including Storm Desmond, which brought record rainfall and devastating flooding to parts of Cumbria. Thousands of homes were affected and transport links across northern England suffered major disruption. However, scientists caution that El Niño was only one of several factors behind those events.

How it is being reported

• County warned of wetter, stormier winter as strong El Niño developsCumbria could face an increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops in the Pacific Ocean, according to forecasters.Cumberland News · 16 Oct, 13:00
• County warned of wetter, stormier winter as strong El Niño developsCumbria could face an increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops in the Pacific Ocean, according to forecasters.Westmorland Gazette · 16 Oct, 13:00
• County warned of wetter, stormier winter as strong El Niño developsCumbria could face an increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops in the Pacific Ocean, according to forecasters.NW Evening Mail · 16 Oct, 13:00
• County warned of wetter, stormier winter as strong El Niño developsCumbria could face an increased risk of wet, windy and stormy weather this autumn and winter as one of the strongest El Niño events on record develops in the Pacific Ocean, according to forecasters.Whitehaven News · 16 Oct, 13:00

In this story: Cumbria · Met Office · Pacific Ocean · Britain · Storm Desmond · northern England

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