Democrats hit record odds of winning Senate and House

Summarised from 3 outlets · Updated 3 Nov, 14:16 · Archive

Prediction markets give Democrats record-high chances of winning control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterm elections.

Prediction markets have given Democrats their highest odds yet of winning control of Congress in midterm elections on Tuesday. Kalshi traders see a 74 per cent chance of Democrats winning the Senate, the highest the platform has recorded since opening. The same platform gives Democrats a 76 per cent chance of controlling both the Senate and House, whilst Polymarket shows 77 per cent odds of Democratic Senate control. The odds of a complete Republican sweep stand at just 6.5 per cent.

The momentum for Democrats has built after a New York Times and Siena University poll found the party leading in several battleground states. Markets on individual Senate races have also swung in Democrats' favour. In Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, odds for Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton have risen to 63 per cent. In Iowa, Democratic chances jumped to 50 per cent, and in Texas odds of a Democratic Senate win climbed to 74 per cent.

Trump's approval ratings have declined, with a Morning Consult poll showing 56 per cent of voters disapprove of his performance, compared with 41 per cent who approve. Whilst not on the ballot himself, Trump has campaigned extensively for Republicans, holding a nationwide tour of rallies and appearing at a final event in Washington, D.C. He said he would use his veto power if Democrats gain control.

Prediction markets use different methodologies from traditional political polling. The Independent World reports that Kalshi is linked to Donald Trump Jr., who joined as an adviser last year with shares valued at around $300,000, and that Trump Jr. also joined Polymarket's advisory board in 2025 with an investment through his venture capital fund.

How it is being reported

• Trump-linked prediction market hits highest odds yet for Democratic midterm sweepChances of a Republican sweep stand at 6.5 percent, Kalshi bettors sayIndependent World · 3 Nov, 14:02
• Prediction market traders now see nearly 75% chance of Democrats winning the SenateJust a day before the midterms, Kalshi traders give Democrats a 74% of controlling the Senate.CNBC · 2 Nov, 19:15
• Democrat odds of 'blue tsunami' soar to a record high in latest prediction as Trump makes last-minute scramble: Live updatesDemocrats' odds of taking control of the Senate have climbed to a record high ahead of Election Day, according to prediction platform Kalshi.Daily Mail · 2 Nov, 13:55

In this story: Donald Trump · Democrats · Republicans · Kalshi · Senate · House · Kansas

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