OBR forecasts household incomes rise after 2026 fall

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 29 Oct, 17:05 · Archive

The Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts real household disposable income will fall by 0.6 per cent in 2026, then rise in each of the following years through 2031. Growth is forecast at 0.2 per cent in 2027, 0.9 per cent in 2028, 0.7 per cent in 2029, 1.1 per cent in 2030, and 1.0 per cent in 2031.

Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch claimed the OBR had forecast real household disposable income would be 'lower every year'. Reform UK's Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick made a similar claim on Thursday, saying living standards would 'decline every single year for the next five years'. The OBR calls real household disposable income 'a useful though incomplete measure of living standards'.

Compared with its previous forecast in March, the OBR has downgraded annual growth in some years and upgraded it in others. However, the overall effect is that real household disposable income is now forecast to be lower in each year of the forecast period than previously estimated, which appears to be what Badenoch was referring to. No measure in the OBR forecast shows living standards declining every single year, making Jenrick's claim unclear.

How it is being reported

• Fact check: Disposable incomes set to rise each year after 2026Claims have been made about the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts.Evening Standard · 29 Oct, 16:34
• Fact check: Disposable incomes set to rise each year after 2026Claims have been made about the Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts.Independent Business · 29 Oct, 16:34

In this story: Office for Budget Responsibility · Kemi Badenoch · Robert Jenrick · Reform UK

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem · Corrections log