UK housing market outlook weakens to three-year low

Summarised from 3 outlets · Updated 12 Nov, 00:20 · Archive

Property professionals expect home sales to fall over the next 12 months at the weakest rate since July 2023, as higher mortgage rates deter buyers.

Property professionals across the UK are bracing for a weaker year ahead for home sales. According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), a net balance of 17% of professionals expect sales to fall rather than rise over the next 12 months, marking the most downbeat outlook since July 2023. This reflects significant headwinds facing the housing market.

Higher mortgage rates continue to suppress buyer demand. A net balance of 24% of property professionals reported new buyer inquiries falling rather than rising in October, unchanged from September. Virtually all parts of the UK are experiencing either falling or stagnant demand, RICS said. Agreed sales also fell back, with a net balance of 24% reporting a decline, the weakest reading in three months.

House prices are under sustained downward pressure. A net balance of 36% of property professionals saw prices fall in October, after values had previously shown signs of stabilising over the summer. London, East Anglia, the West Midlands and the South East recorded the weakest price trends. By contrast, Northern Ireland continued to see firm price rises, whilst Scotland and the North West of England reported modest growth.

Property professionals have also revised down their price expectations for the year ahead. A net balance of 17% now expect prices to fall, a deterioration from a flat reading of zero previously. This is Money reports that some estate agents have warned of particular weakness: a surveyor in South Devon said some homes are being sold for 18% less than they would have fetched two years ago, whilst a Southend-On-Sea agent described prices as being in freefall with little optimism of improvement.

The pipeline of new listings could also weaken, with fresh instructions to sell falling marginally during October. In the lettings market, tenant demand showed modest growth whilst landlord instructions continued falling, RICS said.

How it is being reported

• Experts give bleak prediction for UK housing market with sales set to drop to lowest level in yearsExperts have raised concerns over what is expected to be a difficult 12 months for the housing market in the UKThe Independent · 12 Nov, 00:01
• House prices will keep falling, estate agents warn as they give bleakest outlook in three yearsHouse prices are expected to continue falling over the coming months, as higher interest rates put buyers off moving home.This is Money · 12 Nov, 00:01
• Home sales outlook ‘deteriorates to weakest level in more than three years’The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ report indicated subdued demand, falling agreed sales and further downward pressure on house prices.Evening Standard · 12 Nov, 00:01

In this story: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors · London · East Anglia · West Midlands · South East · Northern Ireland · Scotland · North West of England

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem · Corrections log