Democrats lead in polls before US midterm elections

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 2 Nov, 00:56 · Archive

Polls show Democrats with an advantage heading into the US midterm elections, though polling accuracy has been questioned.

The Democratic Party enters the midterm elections with polls showing a substantial lead. Democratic candidates are projected to win more than the 218 seats needed to flip control of the House of Representatives, and recent surveys show them tied or narrowly ahead in competitive Senate races. Polls put Democrats ahead in traditionally Republican states including Texas, Kansas and Maine, according to the BBC.

However, the BBC cautions that polls have a poor recent track record in predicting election outcomes. The outlet cites several examples of significant polling failures: Trump outperformed predictions in 2016 and 2024, whilst Biden's 2020 victory margin exceeded most polls' estimates. Within recent primaries, Michigan's Democratic Senate primary showed a candidate polling for a double-digit win finishing with just 1%, and a Wisconsin gubernatorial candidate with a near-20-point polling lead lost by a fraction of a percent.

Polling accuracy has deteriorated because Americans increasingly abandon landlines and screen calls, making them harder to reach. Those contacted by pollsters are also increasingly reluctant to participate, according to Clifford Young, president of Ipsos Public Affairs. NPR notes that results may take a while to roll in.

How it is being reported

• Democrats have high hopes for midterms, but polls have let them down beforePolls have been predicting a Democratic surge, but last-minute deciders and sampling issues mean there's no guarantee.BBC World · 2 Nov, 00:25
• How to think about the midterms — and the political moment the country is inPolls show Democrats with an advantage in the midterm election but there are potential limitations and results may take a while to roll in.NPR · 1 Nov, 18:27

In this story: Democratic Party · Republican Party · Donald Trump · Joe Biden · United States · House of Representatives · Senate

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