IMF upgrades global growth forecast amid resilience concerns

Summarised from 2 outlets · 3 reports · Updated 13 Oct, 10:20 · Archive

The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent, citing advanced economies' resilience.

The International Monetary Fund released its World Economic Outlook at its Annual Meetings in Bangkok on Tuesday, raising its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1 per cent from a previous projection of 3.0 per cent. This represents a slowdown from 2025's expected 3.5 per cent growth. The upgrade reflects advanced economies' ability to weather war-fuelled energy price increases, though the IMF warned that poorer countries not benefiting from a boom in artificial intelligence investment face stark choices.

IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said the global economy had shown resilience but warned that resilience was under strain with risks tilted to the downside. The organisation highlighted that global debt-to-GDP ratios remain at elevated levels, including in advanced economies, and called on governments to cut spending and manage borrowing. Deniz Igan, chief of the IMF's World Economic Studies division, said policymakers must balance near-term needs around inflation, food security and energy security with medium-term economic stability. The Japan Times reported that growth is expected to stabilise as the energy shock dissipates and monetary policy gradually normalises.

How it is being reported

• IMF raises Japan’s growth forecast for 2026 to 0.7%The International Monetary Fund says growth will stabilize next year "as the energy shock dissipates and monetary policy gradually normalizes."The Japan Times · 13 Oct, 09:24
• IMF upgrades 2026 growth forecast but warns of 'split' outlookThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday forecast global growth in 2026 would slow less than previously expected because of advanced economies' "resilience" in the face of war-fuelled energy prices, but warned low-income countries remained vulnerable to the supply shock.France 24 · 13 Oct, 04:57
• IMF upgrades 2026 global growth forecast but war and debt threaten outlookThe IMF has raised its 2026 global growth forecast slightly to 3.1%, citing the resilience of advanced economies despite rising energy prices caused by the Iran war. But it warned that poorer countries that are not benefiting from the AI boom remain particularly vulnerable to energy shocks, economic uncertainty and mounting debt.France 24 · 13 Oct, 04:57

In this story: International Monetary Fund · Silvana Tenreyro · Deniz Igan · Kristalina Georgieva · Bangkok · Japan

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem