Record El Niño could cause hundreds of thousands of deaths

Summarised from 11 outlets · 21 reports · Updated 24 Sept, 23:19 · Archive

Scientists warn that extreme heat from this year's record El Niño could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027.

This year's El Niño has already become the strongest on record, several months before it is expected to peak in December. Scientists from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab project that extreme heat linked to the phenomenon could cause approximately 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, with Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan among the countries likely to be most affected. The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44%. The impacts are already being felt globally, with drought, wildfires and rising water temperatures reported across the Americas and beyond. Researchers warn the impact could extend well beyond the six-month period studied.

How it is being reported

• The Guardian view on a supersized El Niño: a natural phenomenon and human folly are a lethal combination | EditorialHundreds of thousands are expected to die, millions to go hungry. This is not just about weather patterns, but about injustice Some warnings are so grave that it is almost impossible to fully comprehend them. The descriptions of a super-sized, “Godzilla-level” El Niño already heating our planet would sound hyperbolic were they not issuing from eminent scientists. They say that the weather pattern, which occurs roughly every two to seven years, may be the strongest in at least a millennium. With its peak yet to come, the temperature rise in the Pacific Ocean has already surpassed the previous…The Guardian · 24 Sept, 18:37
• El Nino sparks warning of extreme weather events - what you need to prepareClimate analysts fear extreme weather events, such as El Niño, can spark massive disruptions in the climate leading to an increase in floods, scorching heat and wildfiresThe Mirror · 24 Sept, 14:40
• Monster El Nino warning issued by Met Office as 'biggest event in 100 years' to spark weather chaosMet Office expert Adam Scaife says that the impact of El Nino is already being felt worldwide, with sea surface temperatures in the Pacific 3.05C above average this weekThe Mirror · 24 Sept, 12:25
• As A 'Godzilla' El Niño Brews, Scientists Share What's Concerning Them Most Right NowA ‘Godzilla’ El Niño is brewing – and scientists are concerned about how the weather phenomenon is set to impact the UK and wider world. The phenomenon develops every few years, and involves the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean becoming hotter than normal. But this year temperatures are ramping up to never-seen-before extremes. An El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5°C above the long-term average. As of 19 September, these temperatures were at a record-breaking 3.05°C above average. The event isn’t expected to peak until December, so…HuffPost UK · 24 Sept, 05:00
• Alarming map reveals how hot Australia will get during the 'super El Niño' as experts warn hundreds could dieScientists warn the scorching temperatures will serve as a 'postcard' from a climate-crisis altered future.Daily Mail · 24 Sept, 00:26
• Scientists warn super El Nino could cause 450,000 deaths: Should we worry?Global South countries will be worst affected by the phenomenon sweeping the planet from June to February.Al Jazeera · 23 Sept, 17:29
• El Nino: Climate scientists warn of "Godzilla-level" climate eventExtreme heat caused by this year’s “super El Niño” could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44%, with Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan among the countries likely to be worst affected. Researchers warn that the impact could extend well beyond the six-month period studied. Carys Garland reports.France 24 · 23 Sept, 15:59
• El Niño could cause 451,000 more heat deaths compared to normal year, group saysResearchers project nearly half a million more heat-related deaths from June 2026 to February 2027 compared with a typical year, as a result of El Niño.CBS News · 23 Sept, 15:58
• Hottest El Niño on record could kill up to 451,000 people in six months, scientists claim — warning of a deadly new normalUnfortunately, the experts predict that these anomalous temps are “postcards from the future," claiming that these alarming figures could become the new normal in just decades.New York Post · 23 Sept, 15:05
• Super El Niño could cause 451,000 excess deaths worldwideExtreme heat linked to this year’s “super El Niño” could cause up to 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab. The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44%, with Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan among the countries likely to be most affected. Researchers warn that the impact could extend well beyond the six-month period studied. Chloe Brimicombe, a climate scientist from the University of Oxford, shares further details about this climate phenomenon.France 24 · 23 Sept, 14:37
• Powerful El Nino could cause more than 450,000 deaths, scientists sayHeaviest toll expected in poorer countries, already struggling with food insecurity and high energy costs, report says.Al Jazeera · 23 Sept, 11:44
• Super El Nino warning as 451,000 deaths forecast by worried scientistsMeteorologists announced the return of the phenomenon earlier this summer, warning that El Nino could contribute to record global temperatures and the hottest year on recordThe Mirror · 23 Sept, 10:39
• El Nino explained: How the weather pattern affects hurricanes and tropical stormsFrom drought to major floods and extreme heat, El Nino will have a huge impact on the world's weather. In the Atlantic, it could mean a season without hurricanes.DW News · 23 Sept, 10:26
• What is an El Niño and how could it cause the hottest year on record? – videoThis year’s ‘super' El Niño currently heating up the planet has surpassed the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon, several months before it has even reached its expected peak. But what exactly is an El Niño and how do they work? Matilda Boseley explains • Huge El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths in next six months Continue reading...The Guardian · 23 Sept, 07:31
• Huge El Niño projected to cause 450,000 deaths in next six monthsNew report predicts a heavy toll from Nigeria to the US – and comes on top of existing impacts of the climate crisis More than 450,000 people are projected to die from the additional heat brought by the super El Niño in the next six months, according to estimates by climate scientists. The toll is on top of the early deaths resulting from temperatures already driven up by the climate crisis. It will strike across the globe, from Indonesia to India, and Nigeria to the US. Many further deaths are expected from the droughts, wildfires and flooding that El Niños bring. Continue reading...The Guardian · 23 Sept, 05:00
• Super El Niño breaks record months before peak as scientists warn of worst season in 1,000 yearsWhile still months away from reaching its peak, the super El Niño is already shattering temperature records.New York Post · 22 Sept, 17:16
• Developing El Niño becomes strongest on record weeks before expected peakScientists say the developing El Niño is now the strongest on record with weather impacts already being felt around the world.BBC World · 22 Sept, 13:54
• Met Office warns of 'Godzilla' super El Nino storms with weeks to go until peakThe current El Nino has already reached record-breaking levels weeks before it is to peak, and could bring storms to the UK throughout autumn and winterThe Mirror · 22 Sept, 13:50
• ‘Unprecedented’ El Nino is already breaking weather records before peak, Met Office warnsThe weather phenomenon has previously been termed a ‘super’ or even ‘Godzilla’ El NiñoThe Independent · 22 Sept, 12:35
• Americas feel effects of record El NinoThe El Nino–Southern Oscillation this year equaled its record intensity, according to specialists, and could yet reach record levels. The weather phenomenon's influence has already been felt across the world, with drought, wildfires, food shortages and sharp rises in water temperatures. The state of California has declared a state of emergency due to El Nino and the effects have been felt all over the Americas.France 24 · 22 Sept, 12:16
• ‘Jaw-dropping’ El Niño bursts through temperature record months before peak‘Godzilla-level’ phenomenon is supercharging the climate crisis and will have a huge impact on communities across the world The “jaw-dropping” El Niño currently heating up the planet has burst through the highest temperature ever recorded for the phenomenon, several months before its expected peak. The latest data shows the temperature rise at the heart of El Niño in the Pacific Ocean has now reached 3.05C. That is higher than the 3.02C set in late November 2015, the previous high set in the 150 years of modern records. This temperature is measured against the average of 1991-2020. Continue…The Guardian · 21 Sept, 14:25

In this story: El Niño · Nigeria · Indonesia · Sudan · University of Chicago · Pacific Ocean

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