UK forecast to miss 0.3% aid spending target by £400m

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 26 Oct, 15:43 · Archive

The UK is predicted to fall short of its 0.3% national income aid target by approximately £400m in 2027.

The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid, with calculations from the Center for Global Development predicting a shortfall of around £410m by the end of 2027. The researchers' central forecast indicated UK aid would be only 0.29% of national income. However, they said it was 'very plausible' that the shortfall would reach £580m, leaving spending at only 0.28% of national income, while even the most conservative forecast implies a £250m shortfall.

The CGD attributed the shortfall to higher than expected inflation, which means national income will be higher than forecast at the spending review, and a 2025 policy change around the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office budget. Ian Mitchell, a senior fellow at the CGD, described these as 'material shortfalls in the spending power of UK aid'. Making up a shortfall of even £400m would be enough to halve cuts to Africa that are likely to cost thousands of lives and mean the UK's de facto exit from the south and east of the continent, he said.

The researchers called on ministers to allocate additional funds to international aid in this week's budget, to avoid missing the target. The 0.3% spending target for 2027 is far below the 0.7% promised in Labour's election manifesto, having been downgraded by Keir Starmer to boost spending on defence.

How it is being reported

• UK set to miss heavily-reduced aid spending target of 0.3%The UK needs to allocate additional funding in the upcoming Budget to meet it’s international aid targets, accordign to forcastingIndependent World · 26 Oct, 15:29
• Labour urged to plug predicted £400m shortfall in overseas aid funding in 2027Official forecast indicates shortfall below 0.3% of national income in promised official development assistance The UK is on course to miss its target of spending 0.3% of national income on international aid by an estimated £400m by the end of next year. Calculations from the Center for Global Development (CGD) found the UK was on course for a large shortfall in promised official development assistance at the end of 2027. Continue reading...Guardian World · 26 Oct, 05:00

In this story: UK · Center for Global Development · Ian Mitchell · Keir Starmer · Africa · Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

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