Australia's home loan numbers expected to show investor lending collapse

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 8 Nov, 01:14 · Archive

Australia's home loan figures are expected to show a sharp decline in investor lending as interest rate rises and government tax changes weigh on demand.

The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to lift the cash rate to an 18-year high on Tuesday has intensified pressure on households struggling to service mortgages amid rising living costs. New home loan commitments have fallen 27 per cent below their peak in November 2025, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics expected to reveal on Wednesday that the decline accelerated in the September quarter from a 5.4 per cent drop in the three months ended June.

ANZ bank economists have predicted a seven per cent drop in overall lending. ANZ economist Madeline Dunk said housing prices and sales volumes both declined in the third quarter, which will weigh on new housing lending. She noted that monthly credit data suggests a sharp pullback in investor demand, which is likely to show up more clearly in the lending release.

Owner-occupier lending has edged lower, but their share of the loan market has increased as investors have deserted the market in large numbers. RBA figures showed the largest fall in investor loans on record, although lending for newly-built dwellings remained relatively resilient. Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock noted that the government's curbs to property investor tax breaks in the May budget have particularly pronounced the decline in investor lending this time.

How it is being reported

• Lending and confidence numbers to show rate rise impactHome loan data is expected to show a significant fall in investor lending as Labor's tax changes and rising interest rates curb demand.Perth Now · 8 Nov, 01:02
• Lending and confidence numbers to show rate rise impactHome loan data is expected to show a significant fall in investor lending as Labor's tax changes and rising interest rates curb demand.The West Australian · 8 Nov, 01:02

In this story: Reserve Bank of Australia · Australian Bureau of Statistics · ANZ Bank · Michele Bullock · Madeline Dunk · Australia

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