Pacific warming effects may persist for centuries even after net-zero

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 13 Oct, 18:02 · Archive

The Pacific Ocean could experience global warming effects for hundreds of years after the world reaches net-zero emissions, a University of Melbourne study finds.

University of Melbourne researchers have found that the Pacific Ocean could experience the effects of global warming for centuries after the world reaches net-zero emissions. The study, published in the Communications Earth and Environment journal, used computer modelling to project changes for 1000 years after emissions ceased.

According to lead author Aditya Sengupta, while the atmosphere and ocean surface can adjust relatively quickly, the deep ocean absorbs and releases heat over hundreds or even thousands of years. This gives the ocean a 'long memory' of previous greenhouse gas emissions, meaning that cutting emissions does not immediately reverse climate change effects in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The research found that global warming could cause a lasting shift towards El Niño-like conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events are associated with hotter and drier conditions in Australia and an increased risk of drought and bushfires. However, researchers stressed that the findings do not mean the Pacific would be locked in a permanent El Niño event, but rather would experience a long-term change to ocean temperature patterns.

Cutting emissions sooner could limit the extent of these changes, though some nations would need to adapt to warmer conditions. The study comes weeks before ocean-related climate threats are expected to feature at the UN's COP31 talks in Antalya, Turkey.

How it is being reported

• 'Long memory': Pacific faces decades of global warmingCutting all greenhouse gas emissions will not immediately reverse the effects of climate change on the world's largest ocean, a study has found.Perth Now · 13 Oct, 17:34
• 'Long memory': Pacific faces decades of global warmingCutting all greenhouse gas emissions will not immediately reverse the effects of climate change on the world's largest ocean, a study has found.The West Australian · 13 Oct, 17:34

In this story: University of Melbourne · Pacific Ocean · Aditya Sengupta · CSIRO · Australia · Antalya · Turkey

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