Polls show Democrats leading in key Senate battlegrounds

Summarised from 3 outlets · Updated 4 Nov, 03:04 · Archive

Democrats are leading in multiple battleground Senate races just before midterm elections, including traditionally Republican states.

A New York Times/Siena poll released in the final days before midterm elections shows Democratic Senate candidates leading across multiple battleground states. Democratic candidates are ahead in five states currently represented by Republican senators: Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and Alaska. Iowa is virtually tied, whilst in Michigan, the only Democratic-held Senate seat surveyed, the party's candidate holds a double-digit lead.

The results are particularly striking given these states' Republican histories. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas has not won a Senate race for Democrats since 1932. In Texas, Democratic state lawmaker James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50 per cent to 43 per cent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 per cent to 44 per cent.

Other races show former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown leading Republican Senator Jon Husted in Ohio 49 per cent to 44 per cent, Democrat Troy Jackson leading Republican Senator Susan Collins in Maine 51 per cent to 45 per cent, and former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola leading Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska 48 per cent to 46 per cent. Iowa shows Democrat Josh Turek edging Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 48 per cent to 47 per cent.

CNN analyst Harry Enten, described as someone President Trump has praised, called the findings an 'earthquake' for Republicans and said they suggest a potential 'blue wave'. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, cautioned that several races remain within the poll's margin of error, but suggested Democratic control of the Senate was 'a distinct possibility'.

However, analysts noted historical caution. Polling in the Trump era has tended to underestimate conservative turnout, with Republicans outperforming final Senate polling averages in Trump-won states by an average of 4.1 per cent in previous elections. Should this pattern repeat, Republicans could retain control of the Senate despite current polling leads for Democrats.

How it is being reported

• Polls close in 15 states, CBS News projects Wyoming and Colorado Senate racesPolls have closed in 15 more states, bringing 81% of the country's polls to a close. CBS News projects that Republican Harriet Hageman will win the Wyoming Senate race and incumbent Democrat John Hickenlooper will win reelection to his Colorado Senate seat.CBS News · 4 Nov, 02:45
• Trump’s favorite CNN pollster delivers devastating news just before midterm electionsDemocratic Senate candidates are up in Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, with Alaska and Iowa ‘too close to call,’ according to late poll described as an ‘earthquake’ for Republicans by expert Harry EntenIndependent World · 2 Nov, 16:30
• Poll flashes warning signs for Republicans in 7 battleground Senate racesSenate polls show Democrats leading in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, Maine and Alaska, with Trump's approval at just 38% across the seven battlegrounds.Fox News · 2 Nov, 11:44

In this story: Texas · Kansas · Ohio · Maine · Alaska · Iowa · Michigan · New York Times

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