Tesla-SpaceX merger odds top 50% for early 2027

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 16 Oct, 21:50 · Archive

Prediction market odds on a Tesla-SpaceX merger have risen above 50% for early 2027 following a Barclays analysis.

Following a Barclays analysis, prediction market traders on Kalshi have raised odds of a Tesla-SpaceX merger above 50% for early 2027. Odds for a merger before March reached 56% by Friday, up from 29%. The odds rise to around 60% for an April deadline and nearly 80% by the end of 2027.

Barclays analysts believe a merger announcement could come before Tesla's annual general meeting, which must take place by 6 December 2026. Analyst Dan Levy suggested the deal could be structured as an artificial intelligence vertical integration involving Tesla's Robotaxi and Optimus with SpaceX's Grok. He also flagged Terafab, a semiconductor project relying on Tesla, SpaceX and xAI, as a potential key driver.

Both companies are controlled by Elon Musk and have recently collaborated. Tesla showcased its new Roadster, which uses SpaceX technology to make the vehicle hover, in a video recorded from SpaceX's test site in Texas. Musk previously noted 'more and more overlap' between the two companies. Evercore ISI recommended buying SpaceX shares ahead of earnings due in early November, boosting its 12-month price target by 20% to $275.

How it is being reported

• Wall Street buzzing over potential SpaceX-Tesla merger in wake of ‘flying’ car demoElon Musk’s unveiling of a new “flying” Tesla on a SpaceX site this week has tech observers buzzing about an out-of-this-world merger between the two companies, with Kalshi bettors putting the odds of such a combo at over 50% for early next year.New York Post · 16 Oct, 21:36
• Prediction market odds on Tesla-SpaceX merger are above 50% for early 2027Kalshi odds for a Tesla-SpaceX merger rose above 50% for early 2027 as Barclays outlined how a deal could work.CNBC · 16 Oct, 18:02

In this story: Tesla · SpaceX · Elon Musk · Barclays · Kalshi

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