Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels dip in 2026 amid Iran war

Summarised from 4 outlets · Updated 10 Nov, 04:08 · Archive

Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are forecast to fall by 0.4 per cent in 2026, driven partly by soaring oil and gas prices following the Iran conflict.

Global emissions from coal, oil and gas are projected to fall by 0.4 per cent in 2026, marking a rare dip after a decade of rises averaging 0.9 per cent annually. The study, presented at the Cop31 climate conference in Antalya, Turkey, forecasts 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions from these sources this year, slightly down on 2025 levels.

Oil emissions are expected to drop by 1.9 per cent as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles instead. Natural gas emissions fell by 0.3 per cent, while coal emissions continued to rise by around 0.6 per cent. Soaring oil and gas prices following the Iran war and disruption of supply through the Strait of Hormuz have encouraged the shift away from fossil fuels. The global expansion of cheap renewable energy, chiefly solar and wind power, has also contributed to the trend.

Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the University of East Anglia said: 'Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China. Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies.' Glen Peters, research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research, cautioned: 'A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change.'

Researchers warn that the improvement may be temporary. The reduction in emissions from fossil fuels will be more than offset by increased emissions from deforestation and land use change, following major fires in south-east Asia and further conversions of wild land to agriculture. Many factors could disrupt the fragile trend, including intensified coal expansion in India, an easing of oil prices and enthusiasm for fossil fuels under US president Donald Trump.

Much greater investment in renewable energy and low-carbon technology would still be required to make permanent reductions in annual emissions, the report's authors said. Peters described the situation as 'a little bit of good news, but for the wrong reasons,' given that the drop is driven by geopolitical disruption rather than decisive climate action.

How it is being reported

• Fossil fuel emissions fall due to Iran war and renewables, research showsThe expected annual drop would be the first since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic paralyzed the global economy, trade and transport.The Japan Times · 10 Nov, 04:26
• Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study showsGlobal carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action. Instead, it's high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that's driving the trend.DW News · 10 Nov, 03:58
• Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026, promising study revealsThe relentless rise in the world's carbon emissions may finally be slowing, according to a major new report.Daily Mail · 10 Nov, 01:25
• Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables pushHowever, authors of a comprehensive assessment to be presented at Cop31 warn talk of a global turnaround premature Cop31 live – latest updates Soaring oil and gas prices following the war in Iran have encouraged people to look beyond fossil fuels, leading to an easing of climate-damaging carbon emissions this year. Carbon dioxide from oil, gas and coal is forecast to flatline for 2026, based on data from the year so far, according to a comprehensive assessment by scientists . Emissions from burning oil alone will drop by 2% as drivers economise on fuel use and flock to electric vehicles…The Guardian · 10 Nov, 01:00

In this story: Iran · Turkey · China · United States · Global Carbon Project · University of East Anglia · Cicero Centre for International Climate Research · Glen Peters

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem · Corrections log