Tactical voting could push Reform into third place, poll finds

Summarised from 7 outlets · 14 reports · Updated 24 Sept, 23:20 · Archive

Tactical voting could prevent Reform UK from winning significantly fewer seats than Labour and the Conservatives at the next election.

A YouGov MRP poll suggests Reform UK would win 123 seats if an election were held now, down from 311 forecast a year ago. Labour would be the largest party with 241 seats, well short of a majority, with the Conservatives second on around 130 seats. The poll indicates tactical voting is increasing, with progressive voters seeking to stop Nigel Farage by supporting Labour candidates. Andy Burnham's Labour could be pushed towards a coalition government, whilst Farage's influence continues to diminish.

How it is being reported

• Mega poll reveals Reform overtaken by Tories as Andy Burnham faces 'rainbow coalition' path to No10Reform UK would win fewer seats than both Labour and the Conservatives if a general election were held today, a bombshell mega poll has revealed. The large-scale seat-by-seat survey places Andy Burnham's Labour as the biggest party in the Commons on 241 seats, well short of the 326 needed for an outright majority. Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives are projected to finish second with 130 seats, representing a modest improvement on their catastrophic 2024 general election performance. Reform would land in third on 123 seats, a far cry from the 311 constituencies YouGov's equivalent poll forecast…GB News · 24 Sept, 13:46
• Would Labour win an early election? Here’s what the polls sayRising support for the government could make this the right time for Burnham to cement his position – but experts have urged cautionThe Independent · 24 Sept, 12:12
• Britain’s pro-Brexit parties are becoming increasingly irrelevantThe YouGov MRP poll points to a leftwing coalition and an end to Brexit Britain – and all the Tories and Reform can do is blame each other from the sidelines, writes political editor David MaddoxThe Independent · 24 Sept, 10:16
• From idealists to struggling sceptics: how Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in chartsAnalysis reveals five distinct groups with sharply contrasting priorities – and who has drifted the most from Labour towards Greens and Reform • Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll finds • UK politics live – latest updates A new MRP poll suggests Labour would remain the largest party if a general election were held now, but would fall well short of an overall majority as Reform surged into second place. Behind those headline figures, research from Survation and 38 Degrees casts new light on five distinct voter groups who are collectively defined as the…The Guardian · 24 Sept, 10:15
• Tactical voting at next election could push Reform into fourth place, poll findsPolling suggests Andy Burnham is attracting progressives back to Labour, motivated by desire to stop Nigel Farage • How Labour’s majority depends on five progressive voter types – in charts UK politics live – latest updates Progressive voters could push Reform UK into fourth place and put Labour within touching distance of a majority if tactical voting is widespread at the next election, a major poll has found. Andy Burnham is beginning to attract a significant number of left-leaning voters back to Labour, motivated by a desire to stop Nigel Farage, the results suggest. Continue reading...The Guardian · 24 Sept, 10:14
• Labour likely to be biggest party in hung parliament, mega poll suggests – UK politics liveThe poll shows Reform UK ‘neck-and-neck’ with the Conservative party Good morning. Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch are both preparing for their party conferences (next week, and the following week, respectively), and this morning YouGov has released a new MRP poll with encouraging news for both of them. Polling is very good at revealing electoral trends, but a lot less good at predicting electoral outcomes, and wise politicians don’t treat them as gospel. But they also find polling impossible to ignore, not least because it shapes the landscape within which parties operate. A leader expecting…The Guardian · 24 Sept, 08:59
• Reform would win fewer seats than Labour and Tories in major blow to Farage, new poll suggestsYahoo News UK · 24 Sept, 08:34
• Reform would win fewer seats than Labour and Tories in major blow to Farage, new poll suggestsReform UK slide from first place to third in latest YouGov MRP polling – with the UK headed for a hung parliamentThe Independent · 24 Sept, 08:34
• Blow for Farage as poll shows Reform would win fewer seats than Tories and Labour at next electionA YouGov study found that Nigel Farage’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now, which is well down on the 311 forecast from a similar poll just one year agoThe Mirror · 24 Sept, 08:34
• Reform On Course To Win Fewer Seats Than Labour Or Tories At General ElectionElection signs for Reform UK. Reform UK are on course to win fewer seats than both Labour and the Tories at the next general election, according to a new mega poll. The YouGov study found that Nigel Farage’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now. Although that is well up on the eight they currently have, it is well down on the 311 seats a similar poll forecast they would get a year ago. Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman – who defected from the Tories – would lose their seats to their former party. Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats – well down…HuffPost UK · 24 Sept, 07:00
• Blow for Reform as voters seek to block Farage's route to No10 with boost in tactical voting support for Labour and ToriesNew analysis of tactical voting suggests the public is increasingly willing to vote for a 'stop Reform' candidate in their area, especially if the alternative is Labour or the Conservatives.Daily Mail · 23 Sept, 14:43
• Tactical Voting Set To Block Nigel Farage's Path To 10 Downing StreetNigel Farage has seen his popularity plummet in recent months. Tactical voting is set to block Nigel Farage’s path to 10 Downing Street at the next general election. A new poll has found that voters are increasingly likely to support other parties to stop Reform UK winning. Labour are set to be the main beneficiaries of this trend, boosting Andy Burnham’s chances of remaining prime minister. The findings also provide further proof that Burnham has completely turned around Labour’s fortunes since he replaced Keir Starmer as PM in July. The poll of more than 6,000 voters, which was conducted…HuffPost UK · 23 Sept, 12:58
• Tories leapfrog Reform UK as Nigel Farage’s party slumps to third in latest pollReform has suffered blows in the new poll, falling to its joint lowest position in 18 monthsThe Independent · 23 Sept, 12:37
• Support for Reform UK plummets to lowest level in two yearsThe latest polling has returned the lowest share YouGov has recorded for Reform UK since the pollster restarted its voting intention tracker in January 2025The Independent · 22 Sept, 11:10

In this story: Nigel Farage · Andy Burnham · Reform UK · Labour · Conservative Party · YouGov

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