Conservatives leap ahead of Reform in latest polling bounce

Summarised from 4 outlets · Updated 13 Oct, 08:50 · Archive

The Conservatives have gained three points to reach 23 per cent, overtaking Reform UK in second place for the first time since 2024.

Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives have achieved a post-conference polling bounce, according to new YouGov research. The party gained three points since its annual conference in Birmingham, reaching 23 per cent support. This marks the Conservatives' highest rating since Ms Badenoch became leader.

Reform UK fell one point to 21 per cent, dropping into third place for the first time since the 2024 general election. This is level with Reform's lowest score in a YouGov poll since they restarted polling after the election. The Liberal Democrats were up one point to 12 per cent, while the Greens remained unchanged on 11 per cent.

Labour's support declined by three points to 24 per cent, a similar level to where the party stood after Andy Burnham took over as leader. The shift narrows the gap between Labour and the Conservatives to just one point.

Ms Badenoch used her conference speech last week to make a significant move on inheritance tax, pledging to abolish the tax on family homes and allow couples to leave £1 million to their children tax-free. She framed this as letting voters 'keep more of what they earn' if the Conservatives return to power. An Opinium poll at the weekend also suggested the Tories had achieved a bounce, indicating that Ms Badenoch's improved personal ratings were translating into wider support.

The polling outcome could dampen speculation about an early general election. Whilst Mr Burnham has denied he is considering an early ballot, the new figures would almost certainly produce a hung Parliament, making the shape of any future government incredibly hard to predict.

How it is being reported

• Reform UK Slump Goes On As Party Falls To Third Place Behind The ToriesReform UK leader Nigel Farage. Reform UK have fallen to third place behind the Tories for the first time in two years, according to a top pollster. YouGov found that support for Nigel Farage’s party is now at just 21%, down another point in the last week. That puts them 2 points behind the Conservatives, who have gone up 3 points to 23% in the wake of their party conference in Birmingham. The Tories are now just a point behind Labour, who are down 3 points to 24%. Anthony Wells of YouGov said the Conservatives were benefiting from a “conference bounce”. He added: “It may well be a temporary…HuffPost UK · 13 Oct, 09:10
• Can the chancellor really win back business?Reform is under pressure again – but could the coming weeks prove make-or-break for Nigel Farage’s party? With fresh undercover filming threatening to cause trouble and a crucial report into the £5m gift looming, how serious could the fallout be? Sam Coates and Anne McElvoy also unpack the latest polling: is Kemi Badenoch enjoying a […]Politico Europe · 13 Oct, 08:40
• Reform falls to third place in the polls as Tories feel Badenoch bounceReform UK has been declining in the polls in recent months following ongoing turbulence for the partyThe Independent · 13 Oct, 08:32
• The Badenoch bounce! Tories leapfrog Reform after Kemi's conference tax vow - and move within a point of LabourThe latest YouGov research found the Conservatives have gained three points since the gathering in Birmingham, reaching 23 per cent support.Daily Mail · 13 Oct, 08:16

In this story: Kemi Badenoch · Andy Burnham · Nigel Farage · Conservative Party · Labour Party · Reform UK · Birmingham

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem