US inflation accelerates to 3.7% ahead of midterm elections

Summarised from 7 outlets · 8 reports · Updated 14 Oct, 14:03 · Archive

US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, above forecasts, driven by surging energy costs linked to the conflict with Iran.

US inflation rose to 3.7% in the year to September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, marking an acceleration from 3.4% in August and exceeding economists' expectations of 3.6%. Consumer prices increased 0.6% from August to September.

Energy costs have been the dominant factor driving the rebound in inflation. Oil prices surged during September, with Brent crude climbing more than 14% for the month and advancing approximately 42% in the third quarter, trading around $105 per barrel on Tuesday. The energy index has risen 20.4% over the past 12 months. The spike in fuel costs follows disruption to Middle East energy supplies caused by the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Average gas prices remain over a dollar per gallon higher than a year ago, and diesel, which powers domestic supply chains, reached record highs in September.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, also increased to 2.6%, above economists' forecasts of 2.5% and up from 2.4% in August. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, warned of 'real upside risk' on inflation, suggesting that energy prices could push up costs in other non-energy categories, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to dismiss the surge as temporary.

The inflation acceleration comes weeks before the midterm elections, with cost of living a central issue for voters. According to a CBS News poll, nine in ten Americans say prices are the most important factor shaping their views of the economy. The Guardian reports that September's inflation rate is the highest before a midterm election, with the exception of the pandemic, since 1990. The news outlet states that higher energy prices from the Iran war have cost Americans over $1,020 per household, totalling $133bn for all US consumers.

Several outlets note the political context, with the final inflation report before elections showing widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over affordability. The New York Post reports that the reading strengthens the Federal Reserve's case for another interest-rate hike this year.

How it is being reported

• Inflation sizzled in September -- and Social Security benefits will get a boostConsumer prices in September jumped 3.7% from a year ago. The Social Security Administration said benefits will increase next year to help keep pace with the rising cost of living.NPR · 14 Oct, 14:33
• Consumer prices rose at 3.7% annual rate in September as gas costs skyrocketThe consumer price index was expected to increase 0.6% in September on a monthly basis and 3.6% from a year ago, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.CNBC · 14 Oct, 14:06
• Inflation heats up to 3.7% in September – more than expected amid soaring energy costsRising energy costs amid the war in Iran largely drove the inflation reading.New York Post · 14 Oct, 13:48
• US inflation rises more than expected ahead of midterm electionsThe pace of price rises increased to 3.7% in the year to September, driving by higher motor fuel costs.BBC Business · 14 Oct, 13:47
• US inflation jumps to 3.7% as Iran war drives up pricesRebound in fuel costs has piled pressure on voters ahead of midterm electionsFinancial Times · 14 Oct, 13:42
• US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, figures showFinal inflation report before midterms comes as polls show widespread anger over cost of living under Trump Republicans are entering the midterm elections with the highest rate of inflation since the spring, according to a government report released on Wednesday. US price increases reached an annual rate of 3.7% in September, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This final inflation report before the pivotal midterm elections comes amid polls showing widespread dissatisfaction with the Trump administration over the cost of living. Continue reading...Guardian World · 14 Oct, 13:36
• Inflation surged in September as U.S. energy costs jumpedThe Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.7% in September, up from 3.4% the month prior.CBS News · 14 Oct, 13:34
• The latest inflation data is expected to show price increases are acceleratingEconomists expect the consumer price index for September to rise 0.6% on the month and 3.6% year over year.CNBC · 13 Oct, 19:05

In this story: United States · Bureau of Labor Statistics · Federal Reserve · Iran · Brent crude

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem