Trump approval ratings plunge ahead of US midterm elections

Summarised from 5 outlets · 8 reports · Updated 2 Nov, 16:45 · Archive

Donald Trump's approval ratings have reached historic lows as Americans vote in midterm elections that polling suggests will favour the Democrats.

Donald Trump faces midterm elections with his approval ratings at historic lows. His overall approval rating stands at 32% according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, whilst approval of his handling of the economy has dropped to 26%, a new low. Only 17% of Americans approve of his handling of the cost of living. A majority of 65% blame his policies for persistently high inflation, attributing it more to his actions than to factors outside his control.

The economic discontent centres on two main issues. Trump's aggressive use of tariffs has driven up prices for diesel and fertilizer, making affordability voters' top concern this cycle. Simultaneously, the war with Iran has contributed to broader economic anxiety and disillusionment.

Cost of living is not the only source of dissatisfaction. Even some Republicans have expressed disappointment. Robert Gault, a 66-year-old retired factory worker from Bradford, Pennsylvania, who identifies as Republican, said: 'I was hoping it would be better or different, but it's not really good. Our president, I thought, was going to help the country, and so far he has not really seemed to have done that with the economy or in general.'

The poor approval ratings are reflected in polling predictions for the midterm elections. The Democrats are projected to win by an 11-point margin, the largest swing by any party in almost 20 years. Political historians and pollsters believe this could signal a significant shift in American politics. One academic assessment describes Trump as 'damaged goods' and questions whether his political influence has become a liability for the Republican Party itself, with potential realignment among Latino voters, agricultural communities and sections of the MAGA electorate.

Allan Lichtman, a political historian at American University who correctly predicted nine of the last 11 presidential election winners, predicts substantial Democratic gains. He gives Democrats over a 90% chance of winning control of the House of Representatives, where Republicans currently hold a slim majority of 219 to 214 seats. For the Senate, he gives Democrats a 67% chance of taking control, with his most likely outcome a 51-49 Democratic majority. He expects Democrats to flip Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas whilst holding Michigan, with Alaska potentially also turning Democratic.

The mathematics favour Democrats in the House. They need to gain just four seats to reach the 218 required for a majority, whilst Republicans' current majority is the thinnest possible. Historically, voters tend to vote against the party in the White House during midterm elections, a pattern that would work against Trump's Republicans.

Trump has been campaigning aggressively with a rally schedule, asking voters to pretend he is on the ballot in an effort to bolster turnout. However, his continued unpopularity suggests this strategy may not be sufficient. The Guardian reported that some outlets question whether, even if Democrats win these midterms, undoing Trump's legacy will prove difficult given internal Democratic disarray.

How it is being reported

• Trump's ratings hit lowest-ever in brutal poll on eve of the election as Republicans privately blame the president for predicted bloodbathPresident Trump's latest approval ratings could serve as an indicator of which way the midterm elections are headedDaily Mail · 2 Nov, 16:38
• Midterms poll tracker: 10 House races you need to know about as betting markets tip Dems to obliterate Trump's majorityHistory suggests Democrats will pick up seats. Holding such a slim majority could be tough for Republicans in a midterm year, when voters tend to vote against the party in the White HouseIndependent World · 2 Nov, 15:55
• Inflation, war and corruption: Will anger at Trump see Republicans punished at midterms?Donald Trump and his Republican Party will make last-gasp pitches to US midterm voters Monday to hold back a predicted Democrat wave that could take over Congress and impose tight political constraints on the president for the first time in two years. With Trump's popularity at an historic low, many are predicting voters will punish the Republican Party at the polls. France 24's Philip Turle takes a closer look.France 24 · 2 Nov, 15:30
• Heading into the midterms, 'no US president in recent times has been as unpopular as Donald Trump'Erin Ogunkeye is pleased to welcome Richard Johnson, Senior Lecturer in US Politics at Queen Mary University of London. He says that "Donald Trump is damaged goods at this point in his presidency." With this uncompromising assessment, Johnson takes us through the political forces shaping the 2026 US midterm elections. Far from assuming that Trump's formidable campaigning instincts can once again mobilize Republican voters, Johnson questions whether the president's political influence has become a liability for the very party he once transformed. He points to a potentially significant…France 24 · 2 Nov, 15:25
• Eerily accurate election guru gives final midterm prediction — and it’s bad news for TrumpUS election expert Allan Lichtman predicts that the Democrats will take control of both chambers of Congress (Pictures: Getty Images) A political historian who correctly called nine of the last 11 US presidential winners is predicting a double defeat for Donald Trump ’s Republicans. Allan Lichtman…Metro · 2 Nov, 15:05
• Trump approval rating tracker: How the president's popularity has plunged ahead of the midtermsApproval of the Republican president on the economy overall has slipped to 26%, a new lowIndependent World · 2 Nov, 14:53
• New poll predicts doomsday scenario for Republicans in all seven toss-up Senate races as Trump eyes scapegoatThe final batch of polling of this year's midterms from the New York Times paints a worst-case scenario for Republicans across the country.Daily Mail · 2 Nov, 13:05
• These midterms could effectively end the Trump era – but neither side is yet ready for what comes next | Nesrine MalikDespite the US president’s ratings being at rock bottom, undoing his legacy will be difficult, not least because the Democrats are in disarray The stats and polling all suggest one thing: the Republicans are set for a hammering in the midterms. Donald Trump has the lowest approval rating of any US president going into a midterm election since Harry Truman. And it’s still dropping. The Democrats are projected to win by a margin of 11 percentage points , the largest swing by any party in almost 20 years. It is possible that the Democrats flip the Senate and secure a large majority in Congress.…The Guardian · 2 Nov, 06:00

In this story: Donald Trump · Allan Lichtman · Democratic Party · Republican Party · United States · Texas · Maine · Pennsylvania

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