War game shows solar geoengineering risks geopolitical conflict

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 13 Oct, 19:08 · Archive

A simulation of solar geoengineering governance revealed geopolitical tensions that could undermine international cooperation.

Researchers staged a war game in September at Queen Mary University of London to test how the world might respond to solar radiation modification technologies, which could reverse global warming by reflecting sunlight away from Earth. The simulation, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, brought together a couple of dozen foreign-relations experts, scientists, military personnel and former government officials from across the world representing national governments, NGOs, indigenous groups and tech companies.

Solar radiation modification technologies work by reflecting a portion of sunlight reaching Earth, for example by spraying particles of sulphur dioxide into the atmosphere. The cooling effect is widely accepted and would mimic the temporary cooling caused by large volcanic eruptions. However, the consequences are uncertain and unequally distributed. Models predict drying in sub-Saharan Africa and more intense tropical storms in the Atlantic. The cooling would last only as long as the geoengineering continued; after that, global temperature could rise sharply with unpredictable effects.

Climate researcher Colleen Golja, assigned to provide technical advice during the simulation, said she had expected the exercise to be straightforward. 'I thought that would be such an easy thing. Like, we can all agree to do ethical research and make sure it's for the better of all humans,' she said. 'And boy, was I wrong.' The war game showed that geopolitical considerations could undermine international coordination on such technologies.

How it is being reported

• They war-gamed dimming the Sun. It went even worse than you think.Solar geoengineering simulation shows what happens when geopolitics takes over.Ars Technica · 13 Oct, 16:17
• They War-Gamed Dimming the Sun. It Went Even Worse Than You ThinkSolar geoengineering could buy humanity time against climate change—or trigger a dangerous new arms race. A first-of-its-kind simulation offered a glimpse of what happens when geopolitics takes the wheel.Wired · 12 Oct, 11:00

In this story: Colleen Golja · Queen Mary University of London · Sub-Saharan Africa · Atlantic

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