Arctic polar vortex disturbance could bring UK cold snap

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 5 Nov, 16:38 · Archive

The Met Office has identified signs of an unusually early polar vortex disturbance that could bring colder weather to the UK.

The Met Office has identified signs of Sudden Stratospheric Warming, an unusually early disruption to the Arctic polar vortex. Computer models suggest the winds surrounding the vortex could briefly reverse during the coming week, potentially meeting the definition of a major event. If confirmed, this would be the earliest major sudden stratospheric warming ever recorded in the satellite observation era.

The polar vortex is a strong circulation of winds high above the Arctic, normally spinning anti-clockwise at around 150 mph and trapping the coldest air around the North Pole. When disturbed or deformed, it can wobble or break up, sometimes even reversing direction. Forecasters estimate a 70% chance of colder weather and frosty spells developing as a result.

Met Office meteorologist Aidan McGivern explained that El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific can influence atmospheric waves that travel upwards and disturb the polar vortex. 'We know that El Niños increase the chances, through this chain of events, of sudden stratospheric warmings happening, and we know sudden stratospheric warmings increase the chance of colder weather for the UK,' he said. The disturbance is particularly unusual because it is occurring so early in November, rather than later in winter when such events are more commonly observed.

In 2018, a breakdown of the polar vortex caused by Sudden Stratospheric Warming brought the 'Beast from the East' to the UK, forcing schools to close and causing widespread transport disruptions. The current disturbance has not yet been confirmed as a major event.

How it is being reported

• London faces possibility of freezing temperatures as polar vortex weakensMet Office warns London could see colder weather and snow this winter after an unusually early polar vortex disturbance on November 4, but no snow is forecast.This Is Local London · 5 Nov, 13:39
• What is Sudden Stratospheric Warming - and how could it impact London’s winter weather?If confirmed, the event will be the earliest breakdown of the Arctic polar vortex ever recorded in the satellite observation eraEvening Standard · 4 Nov, 18:02

In this story: Met Office · Arctic · UK · North Pole · El Niño

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