IMF raises global growth forecast but warns of uneven outlook

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 13 Oct, 04:32 · Archive

The International Monetary Fund has upgraded its forecast for world economic growth this year to 3.1%, but growth is increasingly concentrated among fewer countries.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its outlook for global growth to 3.1% for this year, up from a July forecast of 3.0%. The world economy expanded at a 3.5% annual pace in 2025. The IMF predicts growth in the United States will remain steady at 2.3% in 2026 and 2027.

The IMF now expects oil prices to average $96 a barrel this year, up nearly 41%, which is boosting global inflation to 4.7% in 2026 from 4.1% in 2025. The boom in artificial intelligence is offsetting damage from the sharply higher prices for oil and gas. However, the benefits of the AI boom are not shared equally: the United States and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment.

Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's director of research, told reporters that 'the outlook is highly uneven'. Growth is increasingly concentrated among fewer countries, with just 32 nations now accounting for 95% of global growth compared with 54 countries as of April. The IMF stated that 'the global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength'.

How it is being reported

• IMF raises its forecast for world growth this year but says economies will slow in 2027The International Monetary Fund has slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy for this year, but it's forecasting growth at a still sluggish 3.1%.News4Jax · 13 Oct, 04:16
• IMF raises its forecast for world growth this year but says economies will slow in 2027The International Monetary Fund has slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy for this year, but it's forecasting growth at a still sluggish 3.1%.Clickorlando · 13 Oct, 04:16

In this story: International Monetary Fund · United States · China · Silvana Tenreyro · Thailand

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