Over $600m traded on Polymarket after elections ended

Summarised from 2 outlets · Updated 16 Oct, 16:58 · Archive

Polymarket saw more than $600 million in trading volume on election contracts after the election outcomes were decided.

Prediction market Polymarket's offshore platform generated over $600 million in trading volume on election contracts for Ethiopian and Romanian races, far exceeding typical political market activity. Most of this trading involved contracts tied to long-shot candidates who ultimately did not win.

In Ethiopia's summer federal elections, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won decisively with 438 parliamentary seats, while its closest competitor secured just 13. Yet on Polymarket, only $173,000 was wagered on Ahmed winning, compared to more than $41 million traded on his chief of staff, Shimelis Abdisa, becoming the country's next leader. Of the roughly $285 million in total trading volume on losing candidates, nearly $284 million came from pairs of accounts repeatedly buying and selling with each other.

Experts questioned the pattern. Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College who researches prediction markets, called it 'obviously some form of volume manipulation'. Former Polymarket trader Chris Park, now running prediction-market forensic analysis firm MSR Decode, documented the suspicious account behaviour. Polymarket's head of global intelligence and investigations, Shana Bautista, said the platform 'immediately flagged this activity, investigated, and blocked the accounts from trading', though Polymarket did not explain why the accounts could trade such large volumes before action was taken.

How it is being reported

• Polymarket saw $600 million in election trades after the elections were overMillions kept changing hands long after the election outcomes were effectively settled.Ars Technica · 16 Oct, 15:19
• Over $600 Million in Polymarket Election Trades Took Place After Races EndedContracts tied to elections in Ethiopia and Romania saw massive trading volumes after the outcomes were decided. “It’s obviously some form of volume manipulation,” one expert says.Wired · 15 Oct, 10:00

In this story: Polymarket · Abiy Ahmed · Shimelis Abdisa · Ethiopia · Rajiv Sethi · Chris Park

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