War in Iran blamed for global diesel supply squeeze into 2027

Summarised from 3 outlets · 4 reports · Updated 14 Oct, 09:33 · Archive

Global diesel supplies have tightened sharply due to conflicts disrupting exports, with the International Energy Agency warning constraints will persist until 2027.

Global diesel exports have fallen significantly as conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine disrupt supplies. The International Energy Agency reported last month saw diesel exports drop by 700,000 barrels a day compared to a year earlier, with losses of 1.3 million barrels per day from Russia and the Middle East only partly offset by supplies from other sources.

The IEA warned in its October Oil Market Report that diesel markets will remain tight well into the latter half of 2027. Falling inventories and strong demand have depleted crucial stock cover ahead of the winter demand season. Wholesale diesel prices exceeded $200 a barrel in Singapore in mid-September and reached all-time highs of around $220 per barrel in Europe and the United States.

Retail diesel prices have risen in tandem to record levels. US retail diesel prices stood at $6.20 per gallon as of 5 October, just shy of the record $6.50 per gallon set on 21 September, having been around $3.50 per gallon before the war with Iran. UK diesel prices are similarly touching record highs at 199p per litre. The IEA noted that tensions in the crude freight market could push delivered diesel prices higher in coming weeks in major importing markets including Europe, Africa and Latin America.

How it is being reported

• Trump's diesel dilemma — by the numbersConflicts in Ukraine and Iran have created major ripple effects across global energy markets causing major price swings.CNBC · 14 Oct, 13:58
• ‘From liabilities to goldmines’: refineries eye record profits from diesel shortageFirms turning crude oil into the ‘workhorse’ fuel stand to gain most despite economic fallout from record prices Days after Donald Trump announced a deal to import Russian diesel into the US in an effort to lower soaring pump prices, the world’s energy watchdog has warned that the global fuel shortage will drag into 2027. Trump’s temporary sanctions reprieve was criticised for offering “too little, too late” to temper the sky high pump prices triggered by the shutdown of war-damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia – once the world’s second-largest diesel exporter behind the US.…The Guardian · 14 Oct, 13:26
• Diesel squeeze set to last well into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA saysDiesel supply is expected to remain tight into 2027 as Iran war-related disruption, falling inventories and resilient demand strain the market, the IEA said.CNBC · 14 Oct, 09:00
• Which war is having the biggest impact on diesel prices - Iran or Ukraine?Both conflicts have led to less diesel being exported - but the data shows more has been lost from the Middle East.BBC News · 12 Oct, 15:54

In this story: International Energy Agency · Iran · Russia · Middle East · Ukraine · United States · Europe

This summary was written by AI from the headlines and standfirsts above, and states as fact only what at least two outlets report. How we use AI · Report a problem